1st 2nd 3rd & 4th

Just after telling the GF that the system was due some medium sized winners this year, the universe responded and a nice 25/1 winner romped home by 6 lengths in the 15:20 at Taunton this afternoon. In fact the system also picked out 3rd and 4th placed horses Miss Midnight and Wasn't Me.

In the 16:50 the day almost became an exceptional one when Dew Drop Inn challenged for the lead but it just wasn't to be, especially since I'd got 20's before the start of the race and was looking to make up some of the shortfall from the weekend. Funnily enough Sawpit Sunset and Posh Emily were there to mop up for us if either of the first two failed to finish.

The rest of the afternoon was pretty uneventful but nevertheless a decent profit was made on the day. Is the month's loss about to be reversed?

Given the relative success on the day with a 25/1 winner I thought I'd do a comparison test for the last 5 years using an odds cutoff point of bookies S/P 25/1.

Here's the results at 1 point level stakes to betfair prices minus 5% commission and immediately underneath the same profit to bookies SP for the same year.

2005: 2,947 qualifiers, 215 winners, Betfair profit : 1,203 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 387 points

2006: 3,183 qualifiers, 223 winners, Betfair profit: 774 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 19 points

2007: 3,342 qualifiers, 258 winners, Betfair profit: 1,367 points
Profit to bookie SP: 446 points

2008: 3598 qualifiers, 279 winners, Betfair profit: 1,390 points
Profit to bookie SP: 411 points

2009 (up to and including Feb 17th): 424 qualifiers, 36 winners Betfair profit: 85 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 15 points