I said I'd do it and I have, I must be mad. That's 2 free systems and almost 500 points at SP in the last 5 years for FREE.If you're an experienced bettor the system rules are shown to the left and you can get the selections from the racing post or horseracebase. If you're new to the blog then you might like to familiarise yourself with the following post detailing the last free system rules and HRB setup information.
This time were are dealing with handicaps in Jump racing codes but the theme of the system is similar to the flat system before. The theme is fitness and odds values. We are basically outsmarting the majority punter's view on the race by spotting the value in the odds that were missed by the said majority.
Horses that placed 3rd 4th and 5th last time out and the fallers (an inevitable part of jump racing), unseated riders and those horses that were pulled up etc. Most of these will go off "underbet" or at value prices on their next outing. Add these factors together and watch for the trainer running them at peak fitness.
We are looking for the trainer to enter them quickly (within 5 days of their last race) to capitalise on a horse that is likely peaking in fitness. We are also looking for horses that have had more than 5 runs in the last year thereby proving they are race fit (not too frequently raced though). The last part of the system deals with experienced horses. 3 and 4 year olds are not considered for this system due to having much less experience compared to other older runners.
Here's the basic screenshots for setting up in HRB (follow the 9 tick boxes). More detailed instructions can be found once again in the post detailing the previous free system.
There's one more tick-box, right next to the GO button.
Now that there's two free systems to start you off it would be nice to take a look at the past performance and betting strategies to use. As with the other free system it would be a huge advantage to take the early prices on the lower priced qualifiers. I can't prove it without running live tests but I would be 90% sure to beat the sp prices on most of the winners. Also the systems both use a cutoff value at SP of 4/1 below which the prices become break even or even worse a loss. I do know for a fact that there will be selections that start well below our value point which will have been available at much higher prices earlier in the day.
By getting a price above 4/1 for a runner that goes off under 4/1 should be left in play as the value is automatically inherent in the selection although it might not be an official qualifier. This happened last week and the selection went on to win. Or you could decide to just scalp the value by having a free bet or what's commonly known as a back to lay. Maybe you backed a horse at 7/1 early price and then notice it's 3/1 on betfair just before the off. You could lay off for the same stake and scalp the value in a free bet. There are many ways to use this approach.
On the 18/1 and over selections it would be wise to place a bet at betfair sp or just place the bet a minute or so before the off because the betfair prices on these is usually way higher on average thus giving guaranteed value in the bet. Even so the profit from both systems has been over 450 points to just ordinary SP bets.
So then here's a spreadsheet detailing each bet to SP and included is a ratchet staking plan that would have returned over £40,000 in 5 years from an initial investment of £1k. Don't forget to put me on your Christmas card list!
Related posts:
The Best Kept Racing Systems Builder "Secret" On The Net
How To Use Hrb With James Bond's Free System
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