Don't Bank On Exotic Dancer

The weights for the toughest race on the british racing calendar have been published well ahead of the Grand National 4th April 2009. Exotic Dancer has been given top weight in this daddy of all handicap races - a fair old weight of 11st 10lb.

So how does a form analyst (not like myself) go about unravelling a race of this magnitude with up to 40 runners and a plethora of physical obstacles that each horse must surpass in order to be the 2009 winner? Err... probably with immense difficulty. So then why should you take my advice and stay clear from betting on Exotic Dancer if the handicapper (through allocating various weights) thinks he has the best chance of winning the race?

The answer lies in trends and statistics... Here are the last 20 years winners and the handicap they each carried:

Year Winner SP Weight
2008 Comply Or Die 7-1 JF 10st 9lb
2007 Silver Birch 33-1 10st 6lb
2006 Numbersixvalverde 11-1 10st 8lb
2005 Hedgehunter 7-1F 11st 1lb
2004 Amberleigh House 16-1 10st 10lb
2003 Monty's Pass 16-1 10st 7lb.
2002 Bindaree 20-1 10st 4lb.
2001 Red Marauder 33-1 10st 11lb.
2000 Papillon 10-1 10st 12lb.
1999 Bobbyjo 10-1 10st.
1998 Earth Summit 7-1F 10st 5lb.
1997 Lord Gyllene 14-1 10st.
1996 Rough Quest 7-1F 10st 7lb.
1995 Royal Athlete 40-1 10st 6lb.
1994 Miinnehoma 16-1 10st 8lb.
1993 Void race.
1992 Party Politics 14-1 10st 7lb.
1991 Seagram 12-1 10st 6lb.
1990 Mr Frisk 16-1 10st 6lb.
1989 Little Polveir 28-1 10st 3lb.

Did you spot the odd one out?

2005 Hedgehunter 7-1F 11st 1lb

Hedgehunter was the only winner in the last 20 years to be carrying over 11st. Exotic dancer is going to be given the task of carrying 11st 10lb. Now given the statistics do you think Exotic Dancer will win? It's possible for sure but I'd say it's highly unlikely judging by the stats.

If you click on the image to the left you will see the antepost betting list for the 2009 Grand National on betfair. So how do you think the tipsters would fare trying to sort through that lot? Good luck to them I say I expect most of the serious tipsters will pass the national by or just put their selection up as a fancied runner rather than as a serious tip.

Well once April comes around I shall use the power of trends and statistics to put up a list of my own fancies for the National and hopefully land a decent priced winner and I expect that the prices on betfair will be way higher than the prices the bookies will be offering especially on anything 12/1 sp and above. Let's see if we can crack this nut.

Look out over the coming weeks for more race trends analysis. More Grand National news.