Well, last chance to catch the first newsletter as it will be hitting inboxes by 5.p.m today.Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Results to Betfair SP
4 comments:
Hi James
I was interested on your take on laying and whether any of the free systems you plan on releasing will cover this.
You asked me to post on the blog so that is what I am doing.
Cheers for everything so far.
Gooner
Hi Richard and thanks for posting a question.I must admit I'm not a big fan of laying because it's seriously hard to make it pay.
I know a lot of people are attracted to laying because most of the time it appears that they're winning. Then unfortunately the inevitable winner/s arrive and totally destroy the false profits that may have built up over a short period of time.
5% Betfair commission is extremely difficult to overcome let alone competing against skinny bookies prices. I would rather concentrate my efforts as a backer by picking up the good value offered by the layers in the first place.
Don't get me wrong, some people do make it pay otherwise there wouldn't be any betting exchange layers.
If I were to personally study laying then I would be looking at favourites or short priced runners at the head of the market. Then I would be looking for a value price (below bookies sp) most probably in running not too long after the off.
On the other hand bookies are offering ridiculously low odds on the outsiders and they make huge percentages by doing this. I've noticed that it's always best to back the very long outsiders on betfair close to the off because that's when the inexperienced layers will offer ridiculous value to the backers in order to get their bets matched.
If I were laying outsiders I would lay very early when it's easier to offer a price much closer to bookies prices and lock-in the value before the "get on at any cost" brigade wade in and push the prices right out.
Winners to losers is probably the only system I've ever heard more good than bad about. Even so, I think it was the secret betting club who ran the system through RSB and showed the system to be much less profitable going back past 2004. Perhaps someone could shed more light on that for me.
One thing I've definitley noticed is the tipster proofing on racing index. There's a huge difference in profits for the top backing service compared to the best laying service.
Most of the laying services proof to SP though don't they which is not exactly representative.
I ask about laying because ever since reading the wonderful thread by Maria ages ago I have become completely convinced that something amazing must be out there.
Up until now however I have always fallen short trying to find it.
Nothing worse than laying in the morning only to see the horses price come crashing in to half of what you gave.
Hi Richard, yes proofing to SP and sometimes proofing with no 5% commission allowed for many laying tipsters and systems to make some very unrealistic claims (and loads of money) in the past. Many have have just dropped off the radar completely because the tipster proofing sites now use Betfair Sp as their measuring tool.
Whilst the infamous Maria's laying thread was spectacular for it's time and apparently shows that many thousands can be made laying, ultimately her selection methods were never made public.
The one thing that sticks out like a sore thumb to me is the fact that she often placed her lays early (at around 12p.m.) and then sometimes she layed over odds and sometimes under odds. She never waited for the off.
I've done some digging around and found acelays on the betgear forum which is supposedly very good. http://forum.betgear.net/
Also I re-joined the secret betting club and swotted up about winners to losers. I would take the claimed results on their website with a pinch of salt. At realistic betfair prices the system apparently has made consistent profits since 2002 but with an average ROI of under 3% per anum.
Another laying system to consider would perhaps be "dodgy favourites" by paul fowlie but there's no way to check the back history without great difficulty. I would want to see a way to check the history going back four or five years before I'd want to lump on.
Keep trucking buddy!
My own backing systems have shown to make over 12,000 points to 1 point level stakes since 2005. Even so the inclement weather this year has totally ruined returns. 2009 so far is still over 250 points up at level stakes. I think I'll carry on backing for the time being. I would expect to make at least 1,000 points by year end, so wish me luck!
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