Tipster Or Not To Tipster That Is The Question

The "make-believe" scenario: There's 3 large (£3k) sitting in your bank account wasting away due to low interest rates and comparatively high inflation. You managed to half-heartedly rescue this money from your £5k share portfolio that took a steep nose-dive in the fallout from the credit crunch. You don't like to gamble but you've seen how some of the "secure" financial institutions have been doing that very same thing with your money. The thing is, they lost some of your money on your behalf (how kind of them) and now you want to have more control on how your money is invested going forward. You're sick of waiting years for a declining return, you're disillusioned with the whole financial system so you're looking for a new way, a more profitable way.

You're watching the news when you get the idea. You've just seen Ap McCoy's legendary 3000th win in the sports news. You immediately fire up your laptop and the immortal word "tipsters" is typed into google. ENTER.

This scenario isn't as far fetched as it may first seem.....

Doing some much needed homework is not the only way to approach this subject but I would suggest that the more discerning, more successful investors will study for hours before making their mind up as to how and when they will part with the cash to try and build a lucrative fund or second income. So given that the world of horse racing tipsters has a very dishevelled, back-street image (see video) how does one negotiate the minefield and evaluate the plethora of information on offer? Without turning this article into a thesis on "horse wagering as an investment medium in the 21st century" I am going to write about my own approach and interpretation centered around a few basic questions I would ask.

• What's the buzz surrounding this tipster service?
  



• How long has this service been in operation?



• Does this service "proof" their tips with a reputable independent proofing service?



• How long have they been "live" proofing



• Are the results transparent - is there a spreadsheet I can download?



• How much are the annual subscription fees?



• How much time will I need to expend on a daily basis to make it worth my while?



• How much start-up capital will I need?



• What are the returns to 1 point level stakes?



• Is there a profit to be made at bookies SP or just advised prices only?

With those few questions in mind and having never done this experiment in the past I picked out one popular service in particular which currently has a waiting list to join. I slowly went through the spreadsheet data I obtained and re-organised said data so that I could interpret the results in a more meaningful (to me) way.

The service has been going for 5 years so there are plenty of results to analyse (almost 2000 bets). Given the apparent waiting list and having read various comments left on forums and review sites I'm pretty sure the reputation of this service ranks highly and would have a tick in the box if I were looking to join. I noticed the service has been proofing to an independent site since 2007 so another tick in the box for that one.

The annual subscription is a little on the high side at over £1,000 per anum but in this day and age it's not uncommon for a successful (or even unscrupulous) service to charge these kind of fees. The workload is very minimal and I would say from start to finish 15 minutes a day would be all that's needed to place the bets and there's no need to waiting to place bets near the off. 15 minutes a day even if you were to do this 365 days a year works out to around 90 hours work.

As for starting capital and in view of the fees being charged I would estimate a pot of £3,000.00 as being the bare minimum I would need in order to make a decent return over 1 year after paying subscription fees. I came to this conclusion after picking through the spreadsheet and noticing the worst losing run was 130 points and the worst performing year being a profit of 138 points. So my bare minimum bank would be 250 points and with £3k starting capital that would equate to 250 x £12 bets to start which I would then attempt to increase by doubling or trebling the original amount using ratchet staking. Ideally a £10,000.00 investment fund from the outset would be my preference for this particular service giving a £40 per point start to the proceedings.

This particular racing tipster has their own staking plan but after peeling back the results and applying 1 point level stakes it was clear that advised stakes are preferable and appealing but there is a substantial profit being made to 1 point level stakes nonetheless. I also looked up every win bet and applied bookies Sp instead of the advised prices (advised odds) shown on the spreadsheet (these prices/odds are proofed and obtainable). This took a great deal of time to do but is very worthwhile as it can be a very revealing test of a tipster's skills. At level stakes the prognosis is poor for these bets at bookies Sp but at recommended stakes a healthy profit is realised. So it would definitely indicate to me at least that these guys really know their horses.

In conclusion I would say that following horse racing tipsters is worthwhile provided you have enough funds to cover the subscription costs and give yourself a healthy head-start with a decent enough £ per point ratio. Finding a good tipster is just the beginning. Having yourself a business attitude to investing is of paramount importance. Sound financial education whether it be in gambling or other investment mediums is undeniably essential but you hardly need me to remind you of that. My own free systems available on this blog easily compare to this particular tipster in terms of profit on a yearly basis and that's no joke and not entirely the point! Trusting your hard -earned to a racing system is a stern test of faith in cold statistics whilst tipsters at least appear to be experts and therefore easier to trust and that's why I decided to write this piece in the first place.

If you're interested in following this article further then I strongly suggest you subscribe to my newsletter by popping your details into the boxes below. There is a follow up piece that contains all the information I've deliberately omitted from this article e.g. the tipsters name and website. This info and the detailed spreadsheets of results is available to newsletter subscribers only. Along with all the previous private article archives the newsletter is completely free.

Stay lucky! James.

Related Posts:

http://thedailyjolly.blogspot.com/2009/02/free-money-fill-yer-boots.html

http://thedailyjolly.blogspot.com/2009/02/free-horse-racing-system-no-2.html