Racing Selections May 30th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Blanko

Well kind of expected a downwards facing day - no winners. There was a large placed horse (surprise surprise). SO then here's hoping for a better day today. Sod's law says there will be a winner in the last ha ha!!

Racing Selections May 29th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

On The Fritz Again

As the flat season is now well under way I will be expecting the already meagre strike rate to fall away and for the average odds on each qualifying selection to increase. I will be expecting lots of yo-yoing but the profit line to be on a steady increase over time.I'm still hitting too many placed horses though which is a big grumble and that's what's happened again yesterday. A complete blank.

Racing Selections May 28th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Stopping The Rot

Just when that sinking feeling begins to set in the rot is repaired by a 50/1 shot in the first race of the day. Is there any momentum to it? Watch this space to find out.

Racing Selections May 27th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Nightmare Start To The Week

It was always going to be a question of when and not if for the next losing run to arrive. The last couple of days have shown a blank result across 40 runners, the 14th time to have happened this year so no great biggie just a routine annoyance. Ah well.

Racing Selections May 26th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

System Performance May 18th to May 24th

Well, topping last week was always going to be difficult and although I'd love to say it was so, I can't. Nevertheless the week was a success and 29 points at level stakes was added to the bottom line. This month is fast becoming the best yet but with 1 week to go I don't want to speak too soon.

So then: The results to the staking plan as follows:

@ Betfair Sp including 30 and below: -5.91 points x £50 = -£295.50
@ Betfair Sp greater than 30: +35.00 points x £25 = +875.00

Total for the week = +£579.50

The yearly profit and loss now stands at +£13,746.25 - cool!

Racing Selections May 25th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Update tonight, stay lucky! JB.

Racing Selections May 23rd

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Racing Selections May 22nd

Going out early but I've put selections on punters lounge:

http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f75/longshot-kicked-de-bucket-76365/#post1388145


Update over the weekend at some point.

Racing Selections May 21st

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Secrets In High Places

The coming second problem this year is still present. The stats indicate 125 winners but there has been 143 second places and 147 third places which is an amazing set of figures. Just a small reversal in the figures for 1st and second would make a huge difference in the bottom line. For now though it's a good idea to lay off when the odds drop below 2 in running. The proof if needed happened again yesterday when both Guerilla and Dennick went low in running but failed to score. Overall it was a small losing day.

Racing Selections May 20th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Crack Hot

Well things are certainly on fire at the moment and after the past month's abysmal decline it's more than a welcome relief. The yearly points tally cracked the 600 points barrier (1 point level stakes) yesterday for the first time this year after a 34 point profit was made on the day. From my point of view the year is beginning to look like it's getting back on track, but as ever caution is still the keyword.

There was a moment when it looked like a 200 point plus winner was about to land again when Defi went to 10 in running. I managed to bail for a stake returned free bet.

Racing Selections May 19th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Just Routine

Just a slight losing day yesterday, nothing out the ordinary there then ha ha...

Racing Selections May 18th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

System Performance May 11th to May 17th

Here's a refresher on last week: System Performance May 4th to May 10th

A bit different this week! Overall a profit of 293 points to level stakes.

Here's the tally:

Betfair odds including 30 and under @ £50 a point: +13.17 x £50 = +£658.50

Betfair odds over 30 @ £25 a point: +280.57 x £25 = +£7014.25

A total of +£7,672.75

On to the year to date figures, this puts things firmly back on track. The new total is £13,166.75. How will the month end? The level stakes profit for the month is now +237.09. Higher or lower?

A Flat Weekend?

Well the picture is the probably the best way to describe the weekend. I certainly don't mean in a destructive way more like an EXPLOSION of profits kind of way. 4 winners over the weekend. One of which was at 66/1 or to put it into betfair context - 250/1! Personally I had made a huge mistake on this race, I'd accidentally staked each horse twice by mistake so quite understandably from a personal point of view it was the best mistake I've made all year and certainly put a huge smile on my face and a spring in my step. Sunday turned out to be a wonderful day too. With two winners at 18/1 and 29/1 respectively.

Having been having a terrible flat turf season so far, that big winner has turned the flat turf losses on their head and a really nice profit is showing on my spreadsheet.

Racing Selections May 16th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Just Under Evens (Again)

A day that finished on the rebound and the monthly P&L has risen to 11 points below evens which on the face of it is a complete result quite frankly. Time to march on methinks, especially as my premium tips are now 45 points ahead to level stakes for May.

Racing Selections May 15th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Déjà Vu

Well a blank day yesterday and the stutter continues. I've been here before and no doubt I'll be here again on plenty of occasions. The profit god giveth and he taketh away. I'm wondering what the second half of the month is going to bring? Yesterday was just short of breaking even (at level stakes) for the month. Today is showing a loss of near 30 points. Let battle continue.....

Racing Selections May 14th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Turning The Corner

Could it be that the bottom has been found and the only way is up? It's inevitable after a losing run that a new winning run will start. The law of averages will make it so eventually, but only if you've got an edge.

A big winner yesterday 33/1 sp was returned at 70/1 on betfair!! Mad as you like but there are layers that will give those kind of prices. There's still a way to go yet before the losses are fully clawed back and there's always the thought that it's just a blip and there's worst yet to come. I have to believe that the bottom has been reached and up is the only way to go.

Racing Selections May 13th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Head And Neck Fillet

Two more near misses to report yesterday. Both at large odds drat!

One by a neck:

2nd nk Yakama (IRE) 8-12 Liam Jones Mrs C A Dunnett 4 20/1
held up mid-division, headway towards inside over 2f out, chased winner over 1f out, driven upsides inside final furlong, no extra and held near finish opened 22/1 touched 25/1

And the other by a head:

2nd hd Rosy Dawn 8-5 Debra England J J Bridger 4 20/1 made most, pushed along over 1f out, kept on final furlong, headed final strides touched 18/1

Luckily there was a winner. And enough to make 5 points on the day.

If this is a reversal, it's stuttering badly!

Racing Selections May 12th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Just Over Evens

Well at least I didn't drop any points this time BONUS! ha ha. The last race saved me from another drop down and gave a couple of points back so no complaints!

Racing Selections May 11th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

System Performance May 4th to May 10th

Another carp week! Saturday looked promising when a 47/1 BfSp shot was landed early with the rest of the day biting back with 2nds and thirds galore. Overall then the week dropped 26.21 points to level stakes which brought the year to date tally below the 300 point mark. Having done my sums, backing eachway this year shows a bigger profit than win only- disaster!

Well, here's the totals to the staking:

@ <= BfSp 30 (£50 a point) -9.86 x £50 = -£493.00 and @>BfSp 30 (£25 a point) -26.21 x £25 = -£655.25 and an overall loss on the week of -£1,148.25 and a year to date profit of +£5,494.00. I hope that by next Monday there's some positive news to post.

Racing Selections May 9th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Ever Nearer The Precipice

The precipice of the longest losing run looms closer and there's nothing to do but wait, check the pulse and keep breathing. After a lovely run of profit it's time to eat the dust of loss and keep smiling whilst doing so. No mean feat I can tell you. If you want to see whether this ends in tears or triumph then you'll be reading the blog again next week?

Racing Selections May 8th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Zip It!

Not much else to say right now. Just keep plugging away in the expectation of a good day.

Racing Selections May 7th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Oh Puuurleeeeze!

It's getting boring now telling you all how bad things have been in the last 3 weeks but there's no sign it's abating as yet. What more is there to add except to say 150 points have been dropped.

Racing Selections May 6th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

Stiff Upper Lip

It's getting to be a bit of a feature lately with the slide continuing despite a healthy sized winner yesterday. The flat-turf systems have back-fired so far and I'll be delighted once the profits for these systems begin to kick in. Patience and standing firm are the two things needed in abundance at this point as a losing run of 143 points manifests. Still got 60 points to go to beat the record loss so I'm staying optimistic at this point even though it's extremely hard. Stiff upper lip eh Binkie?!

Racing Selections May 5th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

The Long Dark Tunnel

Another disappointing bank holiday, drawing a complete blank. Meanwhile the slide into the deep dark continues. It feels as though it'll never end but somewhere there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Racing Selections May 4th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

System Performance April 27th to May 3rd

Another shite week with 40 points level stakes down the tubes.

Here's the stack up as per the staking:

BFSP <= 30 @ £50 per point +5.19 X £50 = +£259.50 and BFSP >30 @ £25 per point -46.00 X £25.00 = -1,150.00 a combined loss of -£890.50 and that leaves a total profit year to date of +£6,642.40

Need some better luck this week!

Racing Selections May 2nd

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Running late. Blank yesterday, update Sunday or Monday.

Racing Selections May 1st

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Stay lucky! JB

System Performance Apr '09 YTD

Just like Tim Henman I have to confess I've been the nearly man this month. A whole level stakes profit of 4.18 points after tax. At one point in the month profits were looking very comfortable but the second half of the month went absoloutely pear shaped, and the culprit this time is the start of the flat turf season which has made a loss so far. The only consolation prize this month was to finish with a pitifully tiny level stakes profit.

Level stakes profit year to date? +345.91. Bring on May, please! At least I'm not in front of sir Alan having to explain ha ha!