Friday 13 February 2009

How Best To Stake Mr Bond's Free System

A quick reminder of the overall stats of this racing system can seen in the screenshot. With average win odds of 7.61 or (6.61 with the stake removed) it is not surprising that there is a fairly low strike rate. With the right bank and plain ole level staking the system has shown a return on investment (total profit divided by total stakes) of over 35% which in business terms is huge. For every £1 invested on average a profit of 35p was returned. Put it this way if I gave £1.35 back to you every time you gave me a £1 you'd be running all over the shop to get your hands on as many pounds to give me as possible right? If I only gave you £1.06 back each time would you still be as willing to give me your £1's? A pro gambler would definitely do it believe me.

O.k. I digress. What's it all got to do with betting banks and staking? Well ROI is a good measure of how successful an investment strategy is. The racing system has produced an exceptionally high ROI which indicates there's plenty of lee-way for making profit.

By examining the spreadsheet it's possible to recognise that the most the system ever lost over an extended number of bets (1,000 +) was 30 points. The longest losing run was 26. Given these statistics it would be prudent to build in a margin of error. So let's take our largest running loss and double it to 60 points. Our longest losing run? Double it to 52. O.k. Now let's add some extra padding so that we don't lose our nerve after an extended losing run. Let's set the bank at 100 points. So if you have £1000 burning a hole in your pocket the stake per bet would work out as £1000 divide by 100 or in gambling speak £10 per point.

Put that into perspective and realise that by starting with £1000 it's possible to have the worst losing run the system has ever had. Let's just say the losing run was 60 points or £600. For someone not used to it, having just £400 left after a bad run is going to find betting the next selection psychologically challenging to say the least. Putting the next bet on would be torture, the temptation to bet on the favourite instead of the next system selection is going to be mightily appealing. For that reason I would recommend that a "newbie" start with 150 points and a seasoned bettor start with 100 points. The very high risk merchants would start with 50 points (good luck!!).

Having further evaluated the selections and compared them to Betfair Sp something else jumped right out at me. Apart from only being able to check back to the beginning of 2008 I've noticed that on many of the lower odds qualifiers there wasn't much value in taking a betfair price at all. Why could that be? Betfair prices usually far outstrip bookies Sp even for the more fancied horses and especially on the outsiders. Then it struck me. Most of these selections were being heavily backed before the off. Most of these were steaming in!! Bingo..

What it indicates to me at least is that taking an early price is more than likely to pay dividends and boost profits significantly!! How to do this? Well simple really, forget betfair and just hunt for the best prices at the bookies at around 10.30 a.m. whenever you have a qualifier. The other alternative is to use bookies with best odds guaranteed offers. They will give you a higher price than SP. For instance if the Sp was 10/1 they will give you odds of 11/1 or the next odds step relative to the returned sp of your particular qualifier. Doing this will significantly boost your profits.

So to recap, seasoned bettors start with a 100 point bank and take bookie prices early in the day or place bets at best odds guaranteed. But it doesn't end there. If you want to know how to magically TREBLE your profits then I will quite easily show you how!!! Just add your name and email to the newsletter form below this post and I will send you all the details.

If anyone would like to run and track this system from day to day on this very blog then please get in touch using the contact form.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Some very intriguing and new ideas for me there - Thanks

Ozzie

Drew said...

No problem Ozzie, you're most welcome!