Racing Selections Feb 28th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Here's the rub. It's the end of the month. The systems are in the red but I do have a good feeling about today. Could there be a biggie to put the systems in front?

The bottom end of the systems have made a good profit e.g. anything at 25/1 or under. As discussed previously, it's the big long-shots that have failed us this month. I feel it's about to change.

Within Touching Distance Of Spring

Well another good day with another 4 points in the bank from a very favourably priced winner but how many more necks can I endure? That's right. I keep seeing those two letters: nk. And oh how bitter those letters when placed in that order when your selection was on the receiving end!

The free systems had a qualifier in the 8:50 at 14/1. It came 3rd by a neck to the 2nd who was a neck behind the first. If it wasn't for necks the systems would have been rolling in golden horse-shit these past few days.

Never mind, bailing in the last few seconds did get stakes returned. There's one more day left in the month. Can sweet Saturday make hay whilst the sun shineth? Join me tomorrow at around 1:30 and find out.

You've been Kennedied:

Racing Selections Feb 27th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Running a little late with using google docs but still posted before racing. Another fairly straight-forward day.

The Lucky Last

Not much to report as I was busy most of yesterday. I placed my bets but wasn't really paying too much attention to the market. The day's betting was a complete waste of time till the last at Wolvers and a nice 20/1 winner. Another 7 points successfully clawed back after betfair tax.

Sometimes when reading forums you'll come across some little gems of info. Yesterday's horse racing forum on betfair contained one such post. Unusual to find good info on the betfair forums. Normally it's carnage on there or just pointless gossip and downright lies so I decided to take a screenshot of parts of the post to show an approach one punter takes in cutting down form reading to a minimum. I've no idea if the method works but it does look very logical and sensible and for any punter looking to expand their knowledge base it makes for essential reading in my opinion.

Racing Selections Feb 26th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

All looking A ok again. I'm expecting a winner for the Southwell All Weather system as it's now been over 70 without a winner. It could be
today but don't quote me on that!

There are no qualifiers for the free systems today.


Where's my money you knuntt???

Free Horse Racing System No. 2

I said I'd do it and I have, I must be mad. That's 2 free systems and almost 500 points at SP in the last 5 years for FREE.

If you're an experienced bettor the system rules are shown to the left and you can get the selections from the racing post or horseracebase. If you're new to the blog then you might like to familiarise yourself with the following post detailing the last free system rules and HRB setup information.

This time were are dealing with handicaps in Jump racing codes but the theme of the system is similar to the flat system before. The theme is fitness and odds values. We are basically outsmarting the majority punter's view on the race by spotting the value in the odds that were missed by the said majority.

Horses that placed 3rd 4th and 5th last time out and the fallers (an inevitable part of jump racing), unseated riders and those horses that were pulled up etc. Most of these will go off "underbet" or at value prices on their next outing. Add these factors together and watch for the trainer running them at peak fitness.

We are looking for the trainer to enter them quickly (within 5 days of their last race) to capitalise on a horse that is likely peaking in fitness. We are also looking for horses that have had more than 5 runs in the last year thereby proving they are race fit (not too frequently raced though). The last part of the system deals with experienced horses. 3 and 4 year olds are not considered for this system due to having much less experience compared to other older runners.

Here's the basic screenshots for setting up in HRB (follow the 9 tick boxes). More detailed instructions can be found once again in the post detailing the previous free system.

There's one more tick-box, right next to the GO button.

Now that there's two free systems to start you off it would be nice to take a look at the past performance and betting strategies to use. As with the other free system it would be a huge advantage to take the early prices on the lower priced qualifiers. I can't prove it without running live tests but I would be 90% sure to beat the sp prices on most of the winners. Also the systems both use a cutoff value at SP of 4/1 below which the prices become break even or even worse a loss. I do know for a fact that there will be selections that start well below our value point which will have been available at much higher prices earlier in the day.

By getting a price above 4/1 for a runner that goes off under 4/1 should be left in play as the value is automatically inherent in the selection although it might not be an official qualifier. This happened last week and the selection went on to win. Or you could decide to just scalp the value by having a free bet or what's commonly known as a back to lay. Maybe you backed a horse at 7/1 early price and then notice it's 3/1 on betfair just before the off. You could lay off for the same stake and scalp the value in a free bet. There are many ways to use this approach.

On the 18/1 and over selections it would be wise to place a bet at betfair sp or just place the bet a minute or so before the off because the betfair prices on these is usually way higher on average thus giving guaranteed value in the bet. Even so the profit from both systems has been over 450 points to just ordinary SP bets.

So then here's a spreadsheet detailing each bet to SP and included is a ratchet staking plan that would have returned over £40,000 in 5 years from an initial investment of £1k. Don't forget to put me on your Christmas card list!

Related posts:

The Best Kept Racing Systems Builder "Secret" On The Net

How To Use Hrb With James Bond's Free System

How Best To Stake Mr Bond's Free System

Free Money, Fill Yer Boots!!

Tipster Or Not To Tipster - That Is the Question

Post 69 For February. Oooer Missus!

There's been another 10 points on the grab-back today (hurrah!) with 3 good winners and a couple of value scalps. Great Knight in the first at Wolves provided the first scalp with a back to lay at 9's and 7.4. It went off at 6/1 so it didn't qualify for the system results but utilizing the free bet I made a point and a half when it came 1st. Also Enroblim Tromp in the 16:10 at Folkestone was backed right in but it didn't score unfortunately. As for the three winners: All were under 20's but big enough to give a 10 point profit on the day.

A good reason to boogie methinks.

Racing Selections Feb 25th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Again very little to report so it looks like a straight-forward day once more.

We Shall Fight Them On The Beaches....

Don't forget tomorrow is d-day for free system no.2. Meanwhile there's a qualifier today from the first free system (details elsewhere on the blog): Fateful Attraction 18:50 Kempton available now at 7/1 advised price.

The second system compliments the first in that this time it's based on Jumps rather than the Flat racing. Here's the stats to whet your appetite: Qualifiers: 339 Wins: 55 Profit to SP: 207.

Abracadabra...

So near yet so far, up down and whizz it all around. Two winners, nearly a third and what a turn around from yesterday! Blimey. How many of todays selections ended up below 5 in running?

Alloro started the systems day with a nice win at 14's on betfair. Capybara eventually followed up at 18/1 sp. I managed to get 23 but the betfair sp was no value at 19.41. the race went off very late due to a lady rider having a bad fall in the previous race. I was switching back and forth between races and I watched as Team Chaser in the next at Leicester go to 1.1 in running. I laid off (thankfully) as Donald Will Do beat him to the line!! Well that ended the excitement for the day and yesterdays loss was recouped.

Tomorrows selections online by 14:10 at the latest.

Racing Selections Feb 24th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

I don't forsee many problems today except that there aren't any non runners showing for Catterick. Any changes will be updated as and when they are spotted.

Roll And Coast

Despite the seemingly endless slow spiral downwards in the past few weeks there were some positives to yesterdays results. Many of our selections didn't produce any cigar moments but they did help to increase the torment by coming seemingly close on betfair odds in running. Firstly Sula's Legend Plumpton 14:20 2nd @ 10/1 then came The Graig Wolves 15:40 20/1 3rd. In the 15:50 the systems scored 1st 2nd and 3rd with a winner at 19.36 on betair. Later in the day in the bumper 17:00 Hereford a couple of the big prices went close in running before tailing off and another 3rd in the 17:10 at Wolves finished things off. But it wasn't enough to halt the slide as the day finished below expectation.

Todays selections will be online by 13:45. See you then.

Racing Selections Feb 23rd

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

As well as the main system bets there is a qualifier for the free system: Ardent Prince Wolves 15:40. Advised price 4/1 to or more. It's too short at the bookies but 4/1 is available on betfair.

System Performance Feb 16th to 22nd

Yep that just about sums this weekend up. An unspectacular week followed by a crap weekend has put more down than up on February so far and there's less than a week to go till it's over. The headline figures for the week are as follows: Points: -28.87 in monetary terms thats -28.87 x £25 or -£721.25.

February so far: -£1366.00 Year to date: +£5218.50

Frustrating though as it is I can't help thinking things are going to pick up soon. All the big profits for the systems come from the large priced outsiders.

I decided to run a test on big prices in handicaps. I looked at every runner in all handicap races in all race codes that returned prices of between 33/1 and 100/1 at industry standard starting price. Firstly I took a "control" reading of every year going back to 2005. Then I looked back individual months including December 2008 as that's when the systems also recorded a crap month. Then I looked at those three months as a whole going back to 2005. I was quite surprised by the results.

So then time to concentrate on the week ahead and I do have the next free system ready to post on the blog. Keep your eyes wide open for Thursday.

In the meantime it's babe and music time but maybe not what you're expecting.

Blankety Blank

No sign of Terry or Les (showing my age there), just a blank day.

The only thing I can say is the layers were trying to give it away today and it's a shame our pick came 2nd. I'll quickly explain: The betfair sp for Cashel Blue was 29.64 and there was only 3/4 of a length in it. That wasn't the only odds mismatch I saw today.


Just like to say thanks to Jake for sending this email earlier:

"Put Their Own Money On A Horse"

Saw "summat" in the paper today couldn't resist putting it on the blog. I especially liked the horse racing comment. Al Murray is a hero.

Quick Update

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Bit of a cockup earlier. Here's an amended sheet with the Lingfield races added back in at 16.45 and tomorrow's Fontwell races taken out. Soz about that. If you've been playing on did you notice Jago earlier? I managed to get on @ 38. It went off at 14.5! No cigar though but it's happened before and it'll happen again. Keep scalping the value!

Racing Selections Feb 21st

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Plenty of racing on and not many non-runners so far. I may need to keep a beady eye on those during the day. I'll keep the blog topped up if necessary.

Scalping The Value

Not too bad a day yesterday a very small profit achieved e.g. less than a point ha ha. There were a couple of standout moments to mention firstly with a huge gamble on Charmels Lad in the 2:30 Southwell. I managed to get on at 32 and watched as the odds tumbled right the way down to around 12 which the made it a non qualifier for the system. Having ridden the value out of it I laid off at 13.5 before the off and was sitting on a risk free bet which was already worth more than betting at SP, bonus!! I had scalped the value but it wasn't to be as 5th was the best place he could manage at an SP of 10/1.

Icterus was the other notable runner (Sandown 5:05). As usual the layers piled in just before the off and pushed the price out to 360 or 370 at one point. I had gotten a nice 344 before the prices settled. The betfair sp was 216.93 so I decided to lay off in running and put up a lay @ 50's which gave me a lovely risk free bet much higher than both industry and betfair sp. Then the drama began as I watched the odds get lower and lower and lower. When the odds reached 4 I was hoping for that Christmas was coming late ha ha!! Unfortunately 4th was the outcome @ 100/1.

After that I needed something to steady the nerves. Bach was chosen.

Racing Selections Feb 20th

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

There are no hurdle qualifiers today and I doubt that many of the Southwell selections will qualify either which will make things a lot easier. The free system is not showing any selections today.

Great Results :)

Well a pleasing result yesterday despite my systems qualifiers still playing up. More on that in a minute. But first the free system qualifiers I highlighted yesterday. Run Free and Mogok Ruby. Only one selection qualified at the off. Run Free advised early price of 8/1 went off at 15/2 could only mange 8th place. Meanwhile Mogok Ruby was trading too low to qualify but you could have gotten 4/1 easily during the day. It wasn't an official qualifier going by it's off price but it did romp home to win and congrats to anyone getting the 4/1 advised.

Meanwhile the main systems finished down just a little with a nice winner at 17.5 on betfair. However in a reversal of fortune compared to Saturday when updating the results last night our winner didn't appear in the listings. Although nice to get a big winner it's still frustrating to see that I still have a bug in the software somewhere. It appears that it's just affecting qualifiers in hurdles so I shall be keeping a close eye in that direction.

Racing Selections Feb 19th

Well, last chance to catch the first newsletter as it will be hitting inboxes by 5.p.m today.


Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

The Early Bird Catches The Worm?

Morning/afternoon all! It's brunch time and I'm just looking forward to the day ahead. Firstly the free selections will be online at around 1:30. Racing does indeed look straightforward again today. There are a couple of selections for the free racing system today.

Mogok Ruby8.50 Kempton Forecast 4/1
Run Free4.40 Southwell Forecast 6/1

I've just checked the early prices and run free is available at 8/1. Mogok Ruby is available at a measly 7/2 which means it would need to drift out slightly to become a system qualifier. I would suggest that anyone who gets 4/1 or more before the off would do well to take it. See the update later for more. I would take the 8/1 for run free and hope the price drops later to justify taking an early position.

Getting It Right For A Change

Today I asked for a couple of winners and that's exactly the result we got. Both on the AW this time with Mr Aitch this afternoon at 18's and Valdemar earlier this evening at 11.5. A real shame then that Rollwiththepunches @160 couldn't over come the 4 lengths to help us out in the 17:00 at Doncaster!! A profit on the day is a profit and I'm more than happy with that. Cheers!

The first newsletter is almost ready to roll and should be landing in your inbox sometime tomorrow afternoon. That is only if you've joined of course. So what's holding you back? Till tomorrow.....

Racing Selections Feb 18th Early Doors

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

I've put up the first few selections early today so that I can be a good dad. I'm taking my 8 year old and her best friend to see BOLT at the cinema and I have a good idea that I might be late back before racing starts. I thought it best to put this post up now (8.30 am) well in advance so I have one less task to do when arriving home. All I'll have to do now is edit this post. As soon as I've removed the non runners I'll be able to quick edit where necessary. I hope this movie is good otherwise I'm going to be very bored.

Edit: 13:40 the movie was cool ha ha. I've now put the rest of the selections up. Let's have a couple of "bolt -ins".

1st 2nd 3rd & 4th

Just after telling the GF that the system was due some medium sized winners this year, the universe responded and a nice 25/1 winner romped home by 6 lengths in the 15:20 at Taunton this afternoon. In fact the system also picked out 3rd and 4th placed horses Miss Midnight and Wasn't Me.

In the 16:50 the day almost became an exceptional one when Dew Drop Inn challenged for the lead but it just wasn't to be, especially since I'd got 20's before the start of the race and was looking to make up some of the shortfall from the weekend. Funnily enough Sawpit Sunset and Posh Emily were there to mop up for us if either of the first two failed to finish.

The rest of the afternoon was pretty uneventful but nevertheless a decent profit was made on the day. Is the month's loss about to be reversed?

Given the relative success on the day with a 25/1 winner I thought I'd do a comparison test for the last 5 years using an odds cutoff point of bookies S/P 25/1.

Here's the results at 1 point level stakes to betfair prices minus 5% commission and immediately underneath the same profit to bookies SP for the same year.

2005: 2,947 qualifiers, 215 winners, Betfair profit : 1,203 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 387 points

2006: 3,183 qualifiers, 223 winners, Betfair profit: 774 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 19 points

2007: 3,342 qualifiers, 258 winners, Betfair profit: 1,367 points
Profit to bookie SP: 446 points

2008: 3598 qualifiers, 279 winners, Betfair profit: 1,390 points
Profit to bookie SP: 411 points

2009 (up to and including Feb 17th): 424 qualifiers, 36 winners Betfair profit: 85 points
Profit to Bookie SP: 15 points

Racing Selections Feb 17th

The only thing to be aware of is Southwell: Running a Jumps and Not
an AW meeting today.

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Comin' Up, Comin' Up....It's Dare!

A point depletion day yesterday and no winners. With UK racing getting back to normal after the Wintry conditions literally froze racing for the past couple of weeks I would expect to see a profit by month's end. For today at least it's a fairly late start and selections will be online at around 14:20.

After yesterday's pondering on the writing direction for this blog I have now thought about some of the content I'd like to pursue in the next few weeks. Firstly for those who have joined the newsletter I am going to send out details of how to treble your profits on the free system that was posted on the blog last week. This will be a newsletter only article. Then moving on I am expecting to add another free system to the blog which is being working on already. Then further down the line I want to examine a tipster service in detail with the pros and cons of the particular service as regards being a novice gambler. If anyone has anything at all they'd like to see on the blog then please get in touch either via the comments or by sending mail.

Racing Selections Feb 16th

It all looks pretty straight forwards for today

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell):
SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell:
SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf:
SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Quick Update

For those following the system selections on this fine day, once non runners have been accounted for, the selections should be online at around 1.45pm.

So Far So Good...

Since starting this blog barely two weeks or so ago it's been a lot more interesting from my own perspective than I thought it would be. As time has passed more and more writing and experimental ideas have entered my head on a daily basis than have done for a while. I'm the type of person who tends to start 5 jobs and complete 1. I'm used to delegating. But writing on here is a solitary endeavour and I must complete all the tasks myself which I have enjoyed doing so far.

I didn't set out to research and give away free systems or to write reviews and compile interviews but since I went in this direction I think there's more mileage in it to come. Therefore I'm hoping to add some more free systems till a small portfolio has been added to the blog. One horse racing system alone isn't going to bring home the bacon and apart from the systems I personally follow, and post the selections for each day, I wanted to prove that systems can and do work.

Going forwards I don't intend for the blog to go stale but being only one person bringing fresh relevant content to the blog everyday is going to be a huge challenge. Even so it's not as if I need to put myself under that kind of pressure on a daily basis so I'm happy for the content to grow at a pace that I feel comfortable with. Hopefully you the reader won't get tired of reading at the pace I'm writing or intending to write. As much as my ego likes to think there's a multitude of interested readers hanging on my every blog post I'm quite happy to keep writing and see what happens especially since google has started to pick up on the blog and has started indexing pages.

I have decided that having a newsletter is a pointless task unless there is some extra and valuable information to be released by doing so. Something for the more "hardcore blog readers" to get their teeth into. Most times when a newsletter will be written it will contain extra articles that I don't intend to publish on the blog. All I can therefore add to that is to compel you to add your details to the newsletter and receive the extra information through your inbox as and when there's "interesting racing-related stuff" to write about. Help yourself to the form below.

System Performance Feb 9th to 15th

I feel like I'm driving the M3........

After a reported so-so day yesterday I downloaded the results on the software and I was pouring through the spreadsheet when I noticed 2 winners that I had missed which would have returned an overall profit on the day!!!!. 2 winners, crap! How did that happen???? I immediately emailed support to ask if there was something amiss. It turns out that I hadn't applied the latest software update properly and I wasn't picking up all of the system selections each day even though they were showing up in the results. A whole 20+ points had been lost DOH!!!!

It's one of the psychological downsides to systems and relying on mechanical processes to make profits. It is very frustrating to see this happen especially since I am making public the ups and downs of using systems. I would rather see everything on an upward curve but the reality is way different to theory. At least the truth writes a more interesting blog. Lesson learned I have now fixed my bug and everything is "A O.K." going forward but it was a costly way to find this out and I shall make sure to pay more attention next time. So what's it all got to do with driving an M3? Surely a pleasurable experience? I suggest you watch the top gear clip below.

So how's the real system performed in monetary terms this week? Last week was well, shite, but this week finished on a small profit Yay!! 7.31 points to be precise.

So @ the current level of £25.00 a point that's a profit after betfair tax of £182.75

February to date is showing a loss of £594.25 but year to date 2009 an amazing £6,115.25.

Sun "No Bet" Day

Just a reminder that even though there are system qualifiers I don't personally play Sundays as I like to spend the time with family. I do however usually post the weekly profit and loss to the blog on Sunday evenings. Enjoy your day.

That's All I Have To Say About That

As first efforts go I'm actually quite pleased despite not scoring with my first attempt at trends analysis from earlier in the day. At the off things seemed to go to plan with Eric's Charm running on into and holding the lead with Mon Mome in the middle of the pack. A jumping mistake soon put paid to Eric's Charm mid race and he seemed to wobble from then on in. He was soon tailed off and pulled up. Mon Mome just didn't have the pace to get into it and a best effort was to come 7th a fair few lengths off the winner.

As for the systems it was a pretty uneventful day. Tazbar went very close in running allowing a free bet but no cigar. Meanwhile in the 16:00 Uttoxeter, Phardessa did the business for us @ 16.82 betfair sp. I managed 17.50 before the off but with so many losing selections it was just a bonus to limit the losses.

Racing Selections Feb 14th

If there are any non runner changes I shall update them as they happen.


Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races: SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell): SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell: SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf: SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

A First Attempt At Trends Analysis

Just thought I'd having a go at analysing some trends for today's top class racing. After trawling through the stats for the Betfair Chase at Ascot I couldn't find anything worthwhile so I turned my attention towards the 13:55 Haydock Blue Square Gold Cup Chase instead.

The first thing I noticed was that Head Gear is not conducive to winning and not one animal has crossed the line 1st wearing headgear in the last 10 years. Secondly it was very advantageous to back anything that finished 1st second or third last time out. Ground worse than good was also an advantage for the runners still inside our grouping and I suspect that because of this back markers would find it hard to catch the winner. Therefore only horses that are likely to be prominent or likely to lead or maybe to make all should be considered (taken out all runners that were back markers in their last race). Nothing outside the top 8 in the betting has won in the last 10 years either.

Who are the likely winners given the stats?

O.k. here we go: Mon Mome win and place (currently 12/1) and an outsider to place: Eric's Charm currently trading at 40/1 (win price) with the bookies and 4 places will pay out with it being a 16 runner handicap.

Wish me luck.

Sun Is Shining

Well, well, well, a full days racing ahead today with NO abandonments and the sun is shining where I am and I hope it is for you too. Today will be the first full day's racing for a long time so let's pray it can be capitalised upon. First race for the systems is 13:40 but there won't be any selections posted till nearer the off because I'd like to take account of as many non runner changes as possible. With the systems running the way they do it's one of the boring but necessary tasks to complete for each day's racing and even then as with yesterday further non runners can crop up during an afternoon. Back later.

Well Spotted

If you have systems based on ratings and rankings then on the odd occasion non runners can change the selections. On wednesday in one of our races the favourite was withdrawn just before the off which makes things difficult. In that particular case there was no way to check in time if system selections had changed. Which incidentally they did.

Happily there was an extra selection and it duly lost and fortunately I saved my money. Sometimes it can be misfortunate as the unknown qualifier romps home and leaves you feeling a bit gutted quite frankly.

Today there was a late non runner flagged up which I spotted well in advance of the 5.00 at Lingfield. Two runners were duly added to the selections and I'm pleased to say there was a winner for the system from the extra selections and at a very nice price too. At the off it was 12/1 sp but I'd managed to bag 17.32 - Bonus!!

How Best To Stake Mr Bond's Free System

A quick reminder of the overall stats of this racing system can seen in the screenshot. With average win odds of 7.61 or (6.61 with the stake removed) it is not surprising that there is a fairly low strike rate. With the right bank and plain ole level staking the system has shown a return on investment (total profit divided by total stakes) of over 35% which in business terms is huge. For every £1 invested on average a profit of 35p was returned. Put it this way if I gave £1.35 back to you every time you gave me a £1 you'd be running all over the shop to get your hands on as many pounds to give me as possible right? If I only gave you £1.06 back each time would you still be as willing to give me your £1's? A pro gambler would definitely do it believe me.

O.k. I digress. What's it all got to do with betting banks and staking? Well ROI is a good measure of how successful an investment strategy is. The racing system has produced an exceptionally high ROI which indicates there's plenty of lee-way for making profit.

By examining the spreadsheet it's possible to recognise that the most the system ever lost over an extended number of bets (1,000 +) was 30 points. The longest losing run was 26. Given these statistics it would be prudent to build in a margin of error. So let's take our largest running loss and double it to 60 points. Our longest losing run? Double it to 52. O.k. Now let's add some extra padding so that we don't lose our nerve after an extended losing run. Let's set the bank at 100 points. So if you have £1000 burning a hole in your pocket the stake per bet would work out as £1000 divide by 100 or in gambling speak £10 per point.

Put that into perspective and realise that by starting with £1000 it's possible to have the worst losing run the system has ever had. Let's just say the losing run was 60 points or £600. For someone not used to it, having just £400 left after a bad run is going to find betting the next selection psychologically challenging to say the least. Putting the next bet on would be torture, the temptation to bet on the favourite instead of the next system selection is going to be mightily appealing. For that reason I would recommend that a "newbie" start with 150 points and a seasoned bettor start with 100 points. The very high risk merchants would start with 50 points (good luck!!).

Having further evaluated the selections and compared them to Betfair Sp something else jumped right out at me. Apart from only being able to check back to the beginning of 2008 I've noticed that on many of the lower odds qualifiers there wasn't much value in taking a betfair price at all. Why could that be? Betfair prices usually far outstrip bookies Sp even for the more fancied horses and especially on the outsiders. Then it struck me. Most of these selections were being heavily backed before the off. Most of these were steaming in!! Bingo..

What it indicates to me at least is that taking an early price is more than likely to pay dividends and boost profits significantly!! How to do this? Well simple really, forget betfair and just hunt for the best prices at the bookies at around 10.30 a.m. whenever you have a qualifier. The other alternative is to use bookies with best odds guaranteed offers. They will give you a higher price than SP. For instance if the Sp was 10/1 they will give you odds of 11/1 or the next odds step relative to the returned sp of your particular qualifier. Doing this will significantly boost your profits.

So to recap, seasoned bettors start with a 100 point bank and take bookie prices early in the day or place bets at best odds guaranteed. But it doesn't end there. If you want to know how to magically TREBLE your profits then I will quite easily show you how!!! Just add your name and email to the newsletter form below this post and I will send you all the details.

If anyone would like to run and track this system from day to day on this very blog then please get in touch using the contact form.

Racing Selections Non Runner Update.

A non runner change in the 17:00 @ Lingfield
2 new selections to add: Ardmaddy & Sand Repeal

How To Use Hrb With James Bond's Free System

Maybe, just maybe you've decided to give the horrendously cheap HRB a go and need a helping hand to set up the free racing system and get the qualifiers quickly and easily. Read on.....


To build your system using the horseracebase system builder you will need to log on to Horseracebase.com and click on the "Builder Settings" link from the top menu. Please forgive the patronising tone of the tutorial I'm no teaching expert.

The first thing I suggest to do is manage your login time with the builder settings. Set HRB to "Use Cookies" so that you are kept logged in for the whole time needed to complete this mission.

Now you're ready to click the "System Builder" link, again from the top menu.


Once you've done this you will find a huge array of tick-boxes (see below). Fear not Mr. Punter in the next picture I'll show you which boxes to tick and which to leave blank. In fact we will be using a total of 14 categories.

I've highlighted the boxes to tick in a rather tasteful shitty pink ha ha. (Click on the pic to enlarge it and use your browser back button to get back to this page when you're done).

Once you're done ticking the relevant boxes scroll down to the bottom right and press the big orange, you've been Tango'd "GO" button. You should then arrive at the "Quickset Page" where you'll need to put the correct values into the tick boxes and drop down menus. Cue the next screenshot and the shitty pink rinse as applied to the screenshot where you need to alter the values as per the picture below. Again just click the picture to enlarge it and use your back button to reverse back here.

Yes folks you've guessed it next thing is to click the "yellow" button. You've been Lemonaded LOL. And you'll soon have the System Builder - "Select Action" page loaded onscreen. This is where we proceed to the final analysis and the "save system" part of the process. The results you get will differ slightly to mine as there may have been new qualifiers added to the system since I took the screen-shot on 11th February 09. Your systems criteria should be showing just like mine does on the right hand side of the screen. At this point rather than pressing the "skip and save" button, tick the "Run Query" box and Tango the go button.



Congratulations! Nearly there...Tango the "Run Query" button........



And you should end up with a profit and loss screen similar (if not better) to mine....


To save your new masterpiece push the button marked "notify me" highlighted in pink and all you need is to name it something like "James Bond" ha ha. Click on "Slot 1" and the job's a goodun. If you can now navigate to the "Manage Systems" page you'll be able to check for any qualifiers today. Good luck!

Racing Selections Feb 13th

EDIT: 15:20

A non runner change in the 17:00 @ Lingfield
2 new runners to add: Ardmaddy & Sand Repeal

Hurdles: SP 7/1 to 100/1
Chases: SP 7/1 to 66/1
NH Flat Races: SP 18/1 to 100/1
AW (Not southwell): SP 7/1 to 33/1
AW Southwell: SP 18/1 to 100/1
Flat Turf: SP 18/1 to 100/1

Results to Betfair SP

Nothing doing on the turf today. All abandoned except Chepstow but the signs are looking better for this weekend.

Boooooooom!!! or BUST??

Today was definitely of the former variety I'm pleased to say. After a couple of days of nothing 2 winners came along in a row from 11 qualifying bets, both at Kempton. Firstly "love you louis" drifted before the off and recorded a betfair sp of 14.57 and a bit later on "prince rossi" royally finished the day rather nicely at 11's.

In personal terms I hadn't caught the drift on the first winner and only had 11's. Some of the difference was made up on "Master Sommerville". I had backed at 34 and the Betfair sp was 22.13. I had a lot in hand for a possible lay off and a free bet if the chance was to arise. I duly laid off at 6 in running and recovered my stake. Prince Rossi also helped to make up some of the slack. The betfair sp was 11. I had gotten 12.5 before the off and decided to lay off at evens for another risk free bet. The result went to a "nose" with plenty of photo finish bets firing into the re-opened betfair markets. All in all a "smug mode" day.

Munch Bunch Credit Crunch

Hopefully you've acquainted yourself with the Free Horse Racing System that I put up on the blog in the wee hours of this morning. As previously mentioned I wrote of a brilliant online resource where you could set the system rules up to automatically give you all the potential qualifiers for the system.

Horseracebase.com is the site to which I was referring and hopefully you've seen the benefits of the system as part of a racing systems portfolio. I'll put this into perspective right here and now using the said system would have given you a huge return on investment over the last 10 years. I never mentioned it would make you rich however.

Let's take an imaginary amount of money, lets say £1,000, and put it into an imaginary bank account that paid an imaginary (downright hallucinatory imo) 10% interest. I urge you to try this it's an real eye opener - click on the link and try it for yourself.

You should end up with the same result. A final balance of "£2707.40" or nearly treble the initial investment. If you can get 10% from a bank right now please let me know immediately. So hypothetically no work was done to earn the money except maybe to walk to and from the bank in the first place to make the initial deposit.

O.k. now compare that to the racing system outlined earlier using a non aggressive staking plan of using a 100 point bank and ratchet stakes after each and every time the bank reaches a new high. Here's the download link to the spreadsheet. By clicking the third tab called "ratchet" you'll see this in action. I've set the stake limit to £100 so as to give a realistic comparison.

As you can see from the box entitled "new bank" a compounded amount of £23,335.86 is the end result. You do see my point? And given the recent munch bunch credit crunch the banks are worse gamblers than many of the racing punters anyway. Aren't they? Of bloody course they are!! Let's not get political ha ha....

I can show anyone how to set this system up in Horseracebase but you'll need to get over there and have your account enabled by Chris first. then get your ass back here and I'll show you how it's done. Yes there's a little bit more work to be completed than just walking to a bank and back but I think you'll agree that 10 minutes a day on average would return a huge reward. However I can show you a way to easily treble those profits with very little risk and a modicum of imagination.

Professional gambling has more than a touch of the "black arts" label stuck to it but it's not as hard as some people make it out to be. In the next article I'll explain how best to stake this system. Ciao for now!

The Best Kept Racing Systems Builder "Secret" On The Net

Most times when reading horse racing forums and other such "punter" sources of info you often hear about the very excellent and very free (up to a point) Adrian Massey horse racing site. A great source of information, statistics and ratings it undeniably is but are there any cheap and better alternatives to Massey in the vast sea of horse-racing sites out there?

Quite simply there are very very few. The most popular site for British punters is the racing post but with recent (crap) upgrades and a rumoured "soon to be a pay per view site" the options for the ordinary punters are looking.... well, Pathetic.

That's not quite true, hold your horses, ahem...

There is one very good site out there, it's been kept a secret by the elite few (ha ha!) until now. To put it plainly and without too much rhetoric the options you can wield using this site are quite simply VAST.

O.k. forget the hype! I would tell you now that there's too many options included on this site for the average Joe to handle and that's no joke. That's why in this game you should always specialise, whether it be in handicaps and form reading or trends and statistics and for me it's obviously systems. The site I shall now reveal is capable of supplying all the above and more.

http://www.horseracebase.com/ TA DA! is the place I'm on about. Maybe you've seen it already? Maybe not, either way keep reading and I'll show you some of the features you've been missing.

Horseracebase in simple terms is an online horse racing database which presently stretches back to the beginning of 2003.

But in reality simple it is not because there are a large range of tools attached to the front end of the database which anyone can use to manipulate the data in a myriad of different ways to give many different perspectives on a typical day's races. Irish racing is included too. (Bonus!)

After logging in, the members area navigation bar has a few drop down menus that can be used to browse the entire site. In the screenshot to the right you can see the options available to the user, some of which I'll be exploring further.



Clicking the "Cards and Analysis" button brings the viewer directly to the page where the form reading tools are grouped together for easy navigation.



The racecard option brings up a screen such as the next one shown below. From these dynamic pages you can also keep the same racecard open but using the drop-down menu you can load the next tool for that racecard e.g. Jockey Stats or maybe you want to view the going statistics for each runner in the race. You would use the drop down menu to load the appropriate view. Each time the relevant runners remain on screen for your on-going analysis of the runners in the race.

You can even choose to view the entire days ratings on one page and again using the drop-down menus you can scroll through the various tools to access the ones you need at that precise moment. You can even sort the columns by using another drop-down box. For instance you might want to sort the card by forecast odds - Job done!! When you're finished, use the export to excel function to further manipulate data directly on your hard disc.

Included in the racecards are the HRB form ratings. Without going into too much detail as to what these actually are in this article, it would be easier to tell those readers in the know that you can add your own form ratings to the cards or even adjust the existing ratings criteria. Included in the database is a "ratings machine" which you can use to alter the existing ratings to suit your own interpretations of form lines - how cool is that?

All the trainers jockeys and horses are "clickable" so that you can dig further into from lines if you so wish and it all happens pretty quickly and easily. You can even open multiple tabs in your browser and have a different "large" view showing in each one. That's not so easily done using a desktop horseracing database program let me tell you.


There are even tools that allow you to follow the form of a horse/horses in the future. Maybe you want to see if the winner of a previous race will have his form "franked" by the runners up? It's all possible using the tools provided.

If you're into trend analysis the race histories page is for you. All the major races in the calendar are at your beck and call. In the this previous article some of the Grand National trends were examined.



By now I think you're beginning to see the massive benefits Horseracebase have to offer even the average punter. But It doesn't end there. My own favourite part of HRB is the system builder which I can tell you with conviction is absolutely enormous!!

There are 299 categories that can be combined in almost infinite combinations to extrapolate profitable data from yesterday's racing trends. You can combine elements from the last 5 runs of any horse/horses in any combination. Or you could look at the last time any horse won and compare it with today's data. The possibilities are almost endless. The builder is organised into two distinct sections shown in the screen-shot below.

Included in the system builder is the digger. It's a tool that is completely unique to HRB and can be used in a million and one ways. In the example below I've used it to examine profitable relationships between Uk trainers and jockeys, handicaps/non handicaps.

Doh!! Did I just give more profit away? Ah well if anyone tries to tell you that a system will become unprofitable in the longer term as everyone subsequently jumps on the same bandwagon and forces the odds to shorten over time then take them outside and shoot them!!! Twice!!

The public uses so many different criteria in their search for a winner that most systems just become part of the "market consciousness". The bookies couldn't care less about these apparent system trends. In fact they just want to balance their books on the day so that the liabilities are covered and a profit is guaranteed regardless who wins.

After a hard days night searching for profit using this pretty amazing racing systems builder you are given a raft of options highlighting the vital statistics for your system/s. The longest winning run, the longest losing run, the most profitable month, it's all there for the viewing.

When your eyes can no longer take the strain and you want to save your system. Each user is allocated a bank of 30 slots into which each system's criteria can be saved. From the System Slots page all the days qualifiers can be viewed or downloaded to a spreadheet so there's no hassle for retrieveing system selections each day Genius!!

The site owner Chris Bagnall is a jovial sort of fella and I managed to catch up with him to ask him a few questions.

Can you give the readers more info about yourself / your background and how you came to set up Horseracebase.com?

Yeah sure, I'm from just near to Glasgow originally but live in Dublin now with my family. Ive always been office-based but fanatical about sports, particularly horse racing and football. I learned some computer programming at college and when I became frustrated with the rip off culture/lack of decent resources for punting on the horses I decided to build a database. Everything has just escalated from there really, it naturally progressed into HorseRaceBase and by working with people who came and visited I invested more time and learned new things etc and just kept building the site up.

Horseracebase is a very dynamic database in terms of capabilities, which tool or tools (apart from the system builder as a whole) would in your estimation be the most profitable for a beginner/ intermediate to concentrate on?

Certainly the most popular for those just ‘popping in’ and beginners are the daily tools. The ratings often indicate the value horse in a race and simple stats such as the going/distance analysis make it easy to spot a runner who stands out. Another very popular tool for starters is the Hot Races function as it tells you straight away which races are working out well and people like to pick these out and follow them with My Races.

Let’s just say I’m a newbie to system building, what are your top tips or strategies for getting started with the system builder?

It might sound boring but my honest answer is to take the time to learn what each of the functions does. Its genuinely really simple and once you have the hang of it, its such a powerful facility that it becomes natural to start answering your own questions and finding systems. I'm in the process of adding some new help pages and examples to illustrate best use.

Do you personally advocate the use of systems in your own betting strategies or do you use Horseracebase strictly as a “form study” tool?

Its definitely a form study tool but yeah I follow systems also. The way I operate is I have many systems on the go at once. Put it this way – if you had ten systems, each of which had produced profit for the past 12 months and you decided to follow all ten – it isn't unrealistic to expect at least some of them to continue this trend. My genuine experiences are that they do and with correct staking and common sense its not difficult. Its not easy either and you will have some losing patches, so patience is the key.

The “Donation” price for Horseracebase is currently set at a very reasonable £5 per month are there any plans in the future to raise the price given the amazing value for money you are giving subscribers at the moment?

No, most donors do give more, but its up to them.

I’ve noticed that the ratings have been removed from the system builder, which in my opinion is a great loss. Are there any future plans for Horseracebase e.g A faster server to be able to re-integrate the excellent ratings?

It's not actually a server issue, its to do with how they are worked out and the fact they need to be compared to all within the same race on a mass scale. Unfortunately we had some idiots continually hitting the key pages and as they took a few seconds to load each time it was slowing the site. They will be back but an honest answer is I don’t know when.

How do you envisage Horseracebase in say 2 or 3 years from now?

With existing facilities improved and more features added. Using the feedback we get from our loyal members and the donations they give being utilised towards adding more data, software etc, these things as I already mentioned just happen naturally. We’ve only been online for a very short time and have developed so much, therefore 2-3 years will see some massive enhancements.

Kauto-Star or Denman for the 2009 Gold Cup?

If the conditions are similar it has to be Denman I guess. Based on the head to head last year and the fact Kauto was outclassed, but obviously this weekends comprehensive defeat and the operation recovery are a worry. Will be interesting, that’s for sure!

So then, whether you're into racing form, trends or systems Horseracebase.com is one amazing place for racing enthusiasts and although it's not free you won't find better value for money for a fiver anywhere guaranteed!! In fact I'm pretty sure there's not a lot of profit (if any) in it for Mr Bagnall except the feeling of satisfaction of doing a brilliant job.

P.S.There's also a good natured forum attached to the site and the members are very good at collaborating and passing good info on the day's racing.